Bitcoin Risks Pullback After Key Resistance Rejection (April 23rd)

Summary

• BTCUSD Price: ~$93,581
• April High: $88,874
• Key Resistance:
  • 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA): Rejected price around $89K
  • Stochastic RSI: Overbought, signaling potential for near-term reversal
• Support to Watch: ~$85K (must hold to avoid deeper drop), $74K–$75K (previous local bottom)
• Risk Range: 10–15% potential dip, targeting $80K–$83K on correction

BTCUSD is showing classic exhaustion after failing to close above the 200-day SMA. The stochastic RSI remains overbought on the daily chart, aligning with historical correction patterns.

Factors Affecting Bitcoin

1. 200-Day SMA Rejection
   • The 200-day SMA is acting as strong resistance — a classic bearish signal when the price can't reclaim it during a bullish cycle.
   • A repeated rejection here (despite breaking above the 200EMA and diagonal resistance) suggests bulls are tiring.
2. Macro Headwinds & Correlations
   • S&P 500 weakness and downward momentum influence crypto sentiment, especially as risk-off flows build.
   • USD weakening and rising global M2 support medium-term bullish cases but haven't broken short-term technical resistance.
3. On-Chain Support
   • Whale accumulation and a reemerging Coinbase premium point to strong buy-side interest from U.S. participants.
   • These data points suggest deeper dips could be met with aggressive accumulation.
4. Trade War Pressure
   • Ongoing U.S. trade tensions have reintroduced risk-off behavior across global markets.
   • BTC's March breakdown was partly due to this, with the price losing the 200-day SMA during the initial tariff shock.

Key Takeaway for Traders

• Short-Term:
  • Caution is warranted. Bitcoin is technically overbought, rejected at significant resistance, and may see a 10–15% retracement toward $80K–$83K.
  • Use pullbacks as potential buy opportunities if macro tailwinds persist.
• Medium-Term:
  • The supportive macro backdrop (weakening USD, rising liquidity, and gold strength) remains bullish for BTC over the quarter.
  • Maintain a buy-the-dip mindset if the price holds above $74K–$75K.

BTCUSD – D1 Timeframe

The bearish setup on the daily timeframe chart of BTCUSD is pretty straightforward. Here, we see the trendline resistance overlapping the rally-base-drop supply zone, with the additional confluence from the liquidity above the induced high, the double bearish break of structure, and the Fair Value Gap.

BTCUSD – H4 Timeframe

On the 4-hour timeframe chart, we see the bullish sweep of the SBR pattern, with the highlighted supply zone serving as the area of interest for the short entry. The immediate-term target is highlighted around the $85,000 price mark.

Analyst's Expectations: 

Direction: Bearish

Target: 85513.46

Invalidation: 99716.01

CONCLUSION

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