USDCHF Outlook: Bearish Pressure Builds Despite Short-Term Support Bounce

Summary

• Recent Bounce, Still Capped:
• USDCHF rebounded after testing the May low near 0.8186 but remains capped below the 50-day SMA (~0.8368)—a key technical ceiling.
• Trend Outlook:
  • An ongoing series of lower highs suggests the bearish trend is intact.
  • Resistance: ~0.8368 (50-day SMA)
  • Support: 0.8186 (May low), then 0.8100 (multi-year pivot zone)

Dollar Dynamics

• Labor Market Strength:
  • May NFP surprised to the upside (+139k), giving the USD short-term relief.
  • In response, USDCHF popped above 0.822, but gains were muted amid bearish FX positioning.
• Broad USD Sentiment Still Weak:
  • Options markets show heavy USD put buying and betting on further declines.
  • Reuters poll consensus: Ongoing fiscal uncertainty and trade risks keep the dollar under pressure into Q3.

Swiss Franc Tailwinds

• SNB Active in FX Markets:
  • Reserves data implies recent intervention to support the franc.
  • Despite SNB's efforts to limit excessive strength, capital inflows into CHF continue due to global risk concerns.
• Medium-Term Bearish Bias:
  • Market sees scope for USDCHF to slide toward 0.79–0.80, especially if U.S. data falters or CHF demand persists.

USDCHF – H4 Timeframe

Following the bullish double break of structure from the SBR origin on the 4-hour timeframe chart of USDCHF price, we have seen a bearish price spiral. The bearish retracement has now reached the critical area of the Fibonacci retracement tool and enjoys further confluence from the SBR price action pattern and the rally-base-rally demand zone right behind the FVG region.

Analyst's Expectations: 

Direction: Bullish

Target- 0.83708

Invalidation- 0.80261

CONCLUSION

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