Dua tahun ini, kita menyaksikan pergerakan harga minyak terbesar dalam tempoh 14 tahun, yang membingungkan pasaran, pelabur dan pedagang akibat ketegangan geopolitik dan peralihan ke tenaga bersih.
Wall St banks forecast oil at $100
2022-08-30 • Dikemaskini
What happened?
Financial giants such as JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs anticipate crude oil to skyrocket as high as $100 as the global economy rebounds. Oil prices haven’t been at such a high level since 2014. What are the reasons behind banks’ optimism? The banks believe that Biden’s fiscal stimulus of $1.9 trillion will boost consumption and thus increased demand in combination with massive output cuts would fuel the recent surge in oil prices. However, there is still much depends on OPEC+ decisions on oil supply.
Biden’s green agenda
All these banks’ forecasts are good, but won’t oil be replaced by alternative energy resources? The US President committed to fight climate change and support the development of electric vehicles. His goal is to make the US carbon-free by 2050. It seems that there is no place for crude oil in our future. Yes, but JPMorgan assured: “We’re going to be short of oil before we don’t need it in the years to come. We could see oil overshoot towards, or even above, $100 a barrel.” Besides, Goldman Sachs emphasized that Biden’s stimulus will be directed to middle and low-class people, who mostly drive petrol-drive cars, not Teslas.
Technical analysis
Brent crude has gained more than two-thirds so far since October and reached $63 a barrel. The price has broken through all weekly moving averages, confirming an uptrend. Now the price is just under the key psychological level of $65.00. If it manages to break it, the way up to the high of January of the last year at $70.00 will be clear. Support levels are at the 200-week moving average of $59.00 and the low of late January at $55.00.
The current CFD for Brent oil is BRN-21J, which expires on February 26.
Serupa
Selepas beberapa bulan menerima tekanan dari Rumah Putih, Arab Saudi mengalah dan bersetuju untuk meningkatkan pengeluaran bersama dengan ahli-ahli OPEC+ yang lain.
Pada hari Khamis, 2 Jun, Pertubuhan Negara-Negara Pengeksport Petroleum Plus (OPEC+) telah bersetuju untuk meningkatkan pengeluaran sebanyak 648,000 tong sehari (bpd) pada bulan Julai dan Ogos.
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