Dua tahun ini, kita menyaksikan pergerakan harga minyak terbesar dalam tempoh 14 tahun, yang membingungkan pasaran, pelabur dan pedagang akibat ketegangan geopolitik dan peralihan ke tenaga bersih.
USD/TRY vs inflation
2021-04-30 • Dikemaskini
What's happening
Recently, a new Turkish Central Bank Governor was appointed: Sahap Kavcioglu. He will start his duties as the Turkish lira is almost as cheap as ever - only recently, USD/TRY ceded from the once-again-reached all-time highs of 8.5.
The inflation is very high in Turkey - it was %16.2 in March. That'll be the main focus of the newly appointed governor's speech today. He will advise how the Turkish Central Bank will manage inflation with the interest rate, and that'll shed light on the possible future of USD/TRY.
Essentially, one of the core factors of the instability in the monetary policy in Turkey is that its President Recep Tayyip Erdogan believes that higher interest rates lead to more inflation than before - that goes against the traditional view that hawkish moves limit inflationary dynamics in the economy.
How to use that
Scenario 1
Sahap Kavcioglu goes hawkish; also, his plan makes economic sense in the eyes of international observers; the Turkish Central Bank is expected to gain credibility and the Turkish lira starts rising in value again: USD/TRY will go down so you sell.
Scenario 2
Sahap Kavcioglu fails to share a formidable plan to fight off inflation and continues with the dovish line preferred by the Turkish President; USD/TRY is likely to go up as the lira will lose value: in this scenario, the all-time high resistance of 8.50 may be broken os you buy USD/TRY.
Serupa
Selepas beberapa bulan menerima tekanan dari Rumah Putih, Arab Saudi mengalah dan bersetuju untuk meningkatkan pengeluaran bersama dengan ahli-ahli OPEC+ yang lain.
Brexit selesai. Apa yang akan terjadi pada ekonomi UK dan pound? Ketahui di dalam artikel kami.
Berita terkini
Fed mengumumkan pada hari Rabu bahawa ia membiarkan kadar dasar tidak berubah pada 5…
Jepun melangkah lebih dekat kepada campur tangan mata wang dengan amaran terkuatnya apabila yen merosot ke paras paling lemah dalam kira-kira 34 tahun berbanding dolar…
Sentimen pasaran yang memulih pada pembukaan dagangan awal minggu semalam telah menukar semula haluan pergerakan USD…